STSM Reports – WG3

 

1.

 

Short Term Scientific Mission of Valentin Bertsch (University of Karlsruhe, Germany) visiting Manchester Business School (MBS), UK,
within the ESF-COST Action on Algorithmic Decision Theory (Action number IC0602)

 

March 2008

 

Scientific Report

 

 

The main purpose of the Short Term Scientific Mission was the development and discussion of a sensitivity analysis framework allowing to investigate the impact of simultaneously varying the different preference and utility parameters on the results of a multi-attribute utility theory (MAUT) analysis.

In general, many fruitful discussions in the broad field of decision support, participatory approaches and the impact of risk and uncertainty took place. Moreover, potential future collaboration opportunities in the area of decision making under uncertainty were discussed throughout the whole time of the visit.

A paper entitled “Sensitivity Analysis Techniques in Multi-Attribute Utility Theory” has been prepared during the visit (see attached document). This paper will be submitted to OR Spectrum.

The aim in this paper is to extend some of the existing sensitivity analysis techniques to allow a more comprehensive investigation of the impact of the different sources of uncertainty on the results of a MAUT analysis. In particular, in order to be able to explore the robustness of decision processes, it is important to analyse which uncertainties are most relevant in terms of the results. Furthermore, the methods proposed in the paper are aimed at improving group decision support, i.e. at fostering consensus building by facilitating the elicitation of preference and utility parameters through sensitivity analyses. An important and challenging area of applying multi-attribute methods is industrial risk and emergency management. In modern industrial production networks and their external environment complex decision situations need to be resolved with respect to the potential impact on the society in a wide variety of circumstances. Usually, various scientific expert groups are involved with heterogeneous technical background knowledge in different disciplines. Know-how from economic, ecological, engineering and natural sciences must be brought together, taking into account political and socio-psychological factors resulting in a typical multi-attribute decision analysis (MADA) problem. Additionally, with the increasing demand from the media and the public for information and justification from authorities, methods are required to assess how decisions are taken. MADA seeks to facilitate the communication with the public and the media and can be helpful in forming an audit trail and in enhancing public confidence and understanding in relation to complex group decisions. The aim in the paper, therefore, is to apply the new sensitivity analysis approaches within a case study in the area of industrial risk management. Special emphasis is given to appropriate graphical illustrations in order to support the tangibility of the results.

Finally, I would like to thank the European Science Foundation and the steering committee of the COST action on Algorithmic Decision Theory for the funding of my visit. I had the opportunity to work with very nice, friendly and supportive colleagues in the research group at Manchester Business School. Special thanks go to Simon French, Clare Bayley and Nadia Papamichail for their support during my visit.

 

2. Ulle Endriss to U. of Padove May 7 to May 12.

During an STSM of UE to the University of Padova, we explored the integration of previous work on voting theory and computational social by members of the groups in Padova and Amsterdam. Specifically, we have begun work on an election model where the language in which voter preferences expressed and the language which is used to specify ballots may differ. This leads to new andinteresting prespectives on teh notion of strategy-proofness. Ulle gave a talk about approval voting and worked with Francesca Rossi, Brent Venable, and Maria Silvia Pini on the above issues and they are working on a joint paper.

 

 

 

3.  Nicolas Maudet to U. of Amsterdam.

I benefited from the support of an STSM to visit Ulle Endriss at ILLC (Amsterdam) from May 2nd till May 12th.

The purpose of this STSM was to discuss, establish and initiate new research directions in the field of multiagent resource allocation (MARA). It was related to both WG2 and WG3. More specifically, the topics investigated include: (1) the dynamics of resource allocation (with a special focus on fairness-oriented measures); (2) the generation of problem instances for MARA problems (with the objective of setting up the specifications of a generic problem instance generator); and more prospectively (3) experimental theory of justice (consisting in interpreting different facets of theories of justice in terms of MARA concepts) The proposal was intended to reinforce an existing collaboration between LAMSADE and ILLC, and involved also several PhD students (eg. Joel Uckelman, Cedric Degremont) at the host institution.

 

4. STSM -- Hélène Fargier (IRIT) visiting  B. O'Sullivan and  N.

Wilson (and also Greg Provan and T. Hadzic) at the Cork Constraint

Computation Center, Ireland, from the 1st to the 10th of may.

The main topics of discussion have been :

 

 

- Approximate compilation  (with G. Provan and B. O'Sullivan). In particular, discussion of Greg Provan's new results about incremental algorithms for approximate compilation.

 

- Configuration problems  (with T. Hadzic).

 

- The handling of partially ordered preferences  in combinatorial problems (with N. Wilson). We have in particular discussed in more details a previous preliminary work about the use of variable elimination algorithms in such problems.

 

5. Manfred Jaeger visited Ronen Brafman at Ben-Gurion University, Israel, March 9-14, 2008. The purpose of this visit was twofold: the first goal was to explore the connections between probabilistic relational models (Jaeger's field of expertise) and Brafman's recent work on relational preference rules. This connection also establishes a link between working group 1 (uncertainty models, Jaeger) and working group 3 (preferences, Brafman). In the

investigations during the stsm a possible common computational framework for reasoning with probabilities and reasoning with preferences in relational contexts was identified. Based on these insights, further collaboration with possible joint publications is anticipated.

 

A second goal of this stsm was educational: Jaeger gave an extended tutorial (in 3 parts over 2 hours each) on probabilistic logic models at the department of computer science at Ben-Gurion University.  This tutorial was attended by 10-15  graduate students and faculty from different groups at the department.